Impact
Impact is the one number that says what an event does to an asset’s price.
How the number is computed
Impact is the asset’s price in the YES branch over its price in the NO branch, minus one. Both prices are read from the two branch pools.
impact = P_yes / P_no − 1
135.40 / 124.90 − 1 = +8.41%On every screen the halves of the mark stand apart by the impact: level at zero, further apart as the two prices part.
The identity with spot
With p the odds of YES, P_yes and P_no the asset’s price in each branch and S its spot price:
S = p · P_yes + (1 − p) · P_noAnyone can hold the prices to it: buy the asset on spot, split it, sell both branch tokens, merge the quote. When the weighted branch prices sit above spot that route pays, and taking it pulls them back.
Reading it
A positive impact means the market prices the asset higher if YES. A negative one means it prices it higher if NO.
Impact is quoted per asset. Every asset listed on an event shares the event’s odds and has its own impact.